49ers Could Make History Week 16, And It’s Okay By LA / Plus, A Twist In Search For HC
It’s only fitting, appropriate, and poetic justice that’s it’s us, the Rams team, organization and nation who are in a position such as this: The San Francisco 49ers can make history this week and the Rams stand in their way…Um, but LET’S NOT! Allow me to explain.
Firstly, in gambling on the NFL you should know that one of the basic tendencies is the home field allowance. It can fluctuate a bit upwards depending on the team but on the regular Las Vegas gives a 3-point sacrifice to the team that plays on their home field. The visiting 49ers are currently underdogs coming to Los Angeles by 3, meaning the Rams are favored by -3 points. This also means that the two teams are considered equal if playing at a neutral location. And of course, to us Rams fans this means that Vegas thinks we’re no better than them, all things being equal. Really?
The ’niners are the top team in points allowed and only they average allowing 30+ points per game in the NFL. Yes, our offense sucks and closes the gap between the two teams but I wouldn’t trade our offense for theirs and I’m sure they would want our defense.
Anyway, if you follow point spreads you might know this but for those that don’t gamble, (one example) if the Rams are favored by 3 points (-3) and you want to bet on them they must win by 4 points. If they win by 3 it’s a tie and ties lose. To beat that spread the ’niners must win or lose by less than 3 points, for those weirdos – I mean, fans – betting on them.
This season, the San Francisco 49ers are last in beating the spread currently at 2-11-1 (2 wins/11 losses/1 tie). Since this bit of information has been tracked (as per Odds Sharks, the premier odds documenters), no team has ever finished with less than three (3) wins ATS (against the spread). More amazing than that, at 2-12 (ATS), the Cleveland Browns can also accomplish history at the same time. But back to the 49ers, of course.
How BEAUTIFUL would this be to be the team on record to do this to them, especially with the year we’ve had? And it’s a record that should stand for awhile. I mean, with all of their bragging about the dynasty years when players on that team called us, “the same sorry-ass Rams,” being able to throw this back at their faces would just be… FREAKIN’ AWESOME and without being time-relevant!
On that happy note, here’s this week’s…
The HardKnockers vs The San Francisco 49ers
Neither team has had a great season so let's not expect many if any weekend highlights to come from this game.
The Rams are last (32nd) in total offense, 49ers are 29th. But believe it or not, the Rams are not the worst passing team, the 'niners are (29th to 32nd).
Amazingly, the 'niners have the 4th best ground game (to the Rams 31st) and this will be the main problem because the Rams defense can be vulnerable at times missing gaps or by attempting to get the knock-out punch rather than wrap somebody up properly and secure the tackle.
Overall, the Rams are last in scoring to the 'niners 25th, BUT...
The gap between the two teams are much father on the defensive side, especially when the Rams defense sustains for 4 quarters, hard to do when your offense can't sustain drives for extended periods of time.
The Rams defense is ranked 11th. Deceiving because of the offense and the injuries they've had. When all the planets align this unit is easily top 5 in my humble opinion.
The 49ers have the worst (32nd) defense and it's not deceiving at all. They're just horrible and lead the entire NFL in points allowed, being the ONLY team giving up 30+ points per game. They are also the worst run-stopping team in the league so could this be the game Todd Gurley goes off?
The Rams have the 9th-best passing coverage but this is deceiving because they're so banged up now (and still, Seattle only scored 24 on them). Without turnovers or the Rams handing them the game, the 'niners shouldn't even see 20 points, and No, don't get it twisted by week 1, they aren't 28-0 better than the Rams. That game was a total travel-caused fluke!
Basically, this game comes down to how well the Rams stop the run, how many penalties they DON'T get called against them, and the percentage of the book the Rams QB and WRs can get on the same page, which helps the run. So DOable, this game is well within our reach and I'll be predicting in my Thursday picks something like Rams 23 - 49ers 13.
A Bit of Coaching Info That Adds an Interesting Dynamic
On Colin Coherd's show, "The Herd" this morning, well-respected ex-NFL head coach Mike Shanahan was directly asked by Colin about expecting the Rams HC opening should the Rams come calling. What he said was interesting and not a bad idea at all.
He started by saying that winning starts at the top and that a potential hire (or HIM) should ask, How bad do they want to win? "Do they want to make money or do they want to win?" Regarding the Rams, Mike did a really good job of saying that the Rams' front office was a grease fire and 'as is' he wanted no part of it. He also said he really has no head coaching desire and recommended his son...Then it got interesting.
Colin Coherd tried but couldn't pull the words directly from Mike's lips, but what Mike did say was that he would help the Rams out in some capacity (upwardly, and upon the hiring of his son). Reading between the lines, Colin (and I) understood it to mean, "Hire my son, Kyle Shanahan and you get me as the GM."
Since it's been reported that the LA Rams might clean house and that the new coach may want to name his own GM this is an interesting possibility depending on what Stan Kroenke actually wants...and Rams fans know he's a businessman more than a die-hard Rams fan.
Mike made it clear that defense is the important thing, moreso than QB. The Rams have that and I would bet 'straight cash, homie' that son Kyle has or will be getting an earful of Mike's knowledge on prospective teams to go to. He mentioned the Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars defense by name.
If the vid's not posted on YouTube yet, part of that interview will be here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFDidMd82mpDkKijLUqHp7A/videos
That’s a wrap!
Go to my NFL Pros@Prose Picks submission Thursday afternoon to see my prediction for this game and the rest of the league.
Later, Ramily. Horns up!